Cascade Space

What do they actually do

Cascade Space builds software and services for space mission communications. Today they ship an open‑source Python library called SpaceLink for link budgets, antenna patterns, and RF chain calculations, and they are rolling out an early/beta web app (often called “Cascade Portal”) for dynamic link modeling and communications system design (GitHub; Infinite Frontiers interview; Business Wire).

They are also standing up a ground‑station offering (“Cascade Network”). The site currently routes teams to schedule calls, with the company saying it is bringing stations online and expanding coverage; full lunar/deep‑space support is on the roadmap rather than generally available today (Cascade homepage/roadmap; DatacenterDynamics). Typical workflow: teams model links in SpaceLink or the Portal, talk with Cascade to translate models into a comms plan, and request ground‑station time; while the network is being built, Cascade coordinates access or advises on how to meet link requirements (GitHub; Infinite Frontiers; Business Wire).

Near‑term, they aim to integrate design → test → operations in one stack and to expand their own stations from LEO toward lunar/deep‑space coverage, with milestones like TLI support in 2026 and 24/7 lunar/deep‑space coverage targeted for 2027 (Cascade roadmap; SpaceDaily).

Who are their target customer(s)

• Early-stage satellite startups (LEO to lunar): They often lack dedicated comms engineers and struggle to design reliable RF links and secure ground‑station time during development, which slows iteration and adds risk (YC profile; Infinite Frontiers).
• University or small research mission teams (CubeSats, tech demos): Tight budgets and limited ops experience make it hard to turn link budgets into a working plan or secure affordable, repeatable ground access (Cascade homepage; Business Wire).
• Flight-test and integration engineers validating RF hardware pre‑launch: Few test windows and expensive passes make validation slow; they need fast, accurate modeling tools plus predictable ground time to shorten debug loops (SpaceLink repo; Infinite Frontiers).
• Companies planning lunar or deep‑space missions: They require larger apertures and continuous coverage for mission assurance, but current providers are fragmented and end‑to‑end support is not guaranteed (Cascade roadmap; DatacenterDynamics).
• Satellite operations and systems‑integrator teams (post‑launch ops): Handing off from offline design tools to separate network operators causes misconfigurations and delays; they want a single, integrated workflow from link design to live operations (Business Wire; SpaceDaily).

How would they acquire their first 10, 50, and 100 customers

• First 10: Run hands‑on pilots with teams already using SpaceLink and site inbound leads: pair a Cascade engineer with the customer to produce a working comms plan and include one guaranteed test pass, capturing before/after metrics and testimonials.
• First 50: Leverage referrals and low‑cost university/test‑team pilots; resell predictable test blocks from regional ground‑station operators under Cascade scheduling and offer paid month‑long pilot bundles (software + reserved passes).
• First 100: Scale technical workshops and “mission clinic” office hours to feed paid trials; add customer‑success engineers and formalize channel deals with spacecraft integrators/test labs to become the default comms option, converting the best pilots into multi‑month paid contracts.

What is the rough total addressable market

Top-down context:

The broader satellite ground‑station market is estimated in the tens of billions (roughly $50–70B), providing the backdrop for managed ground services and tools (GMI Insights; ResearchAndMarkets). Adding the emerging lunar communications services market (reported around ~$1.2–1.3B in 2024) suggests a long‑run integrated TAM of roughly $4–9B for design + test + managed access (MarketIntelo; GrowthMarketReports).

Bottom-up calculation:

Hundreds of active smallsat operators and university projects plus thousands of smallsats launched recently indicate a large customer base, but early per‑customer spend is modest; sizing near‑term SAM as low hundreds of millions to low‑single‑digit billions (~$0.7–2.1B) aligns with conservative per‑mission spend and adoption assumptions (BryceTech; Nanosats database).

Assumptions:

• GSaaS/managed services represent ~5–15% of the broader ground‑station market in the near term.
• Lunar communications services are an emerging market around ~$1–1.5B today with high growth through the late 2020s.
• Early customers (startups, universities, test teams) spend roughly $50k–$250k annually on software, consulting, and test access, with limited initial penetration.

Who are some of their notable competitors

• AWS Ground Station: Cloud‑managed service selling scheduled antenna time with direct integration to AWS compute/storage; competes on on‑demand ground access and workflow integration (AWS Ground Station).
• Kongsberg Satellite Services (KSAT): Established global ground‑station operator with reliable pass coverage and mission support, including deep‑space services; notable for availability and mission assurance (KSAT ground stations; KSAT deep space).
• Swedish Space Corporation (SSC): Long‑running provider of ground stations and mission services from LEO to deep space; competes for high‑assurance ground access and operations support (SSC ground stations; SSC deep space).
• Leaf Space: GSaaS focused on smallsat teams with scheduled passes and simple booking; notable as a close functional competitor for affordable LEO access (Leaf Space).
• Goonhilly (Goonhilly Earth Station): Commercial operator building deep‑space capability and mission services; competes for lunar/deep‑space antenna time with large apertures (Goonhilly).