Instinct

What do they actually do

Instinct is building a small lunar navigation satellite system — a GPS-like service miniaturized to CubeSat class — so spacecraft, landers, and rovers can get reliable position and timing around the Moon. Today they are in development: assembling a CubeSat technology demonstrator called the Baseline Orbital Ranging Device (BORD) to flight‑test their navigation payload in low Earth orbit. They are not yet operating a lunar navigation service and have not announced paying customers Instinct/YC launch page, YC/LinkedIn post, Fondo coverage.

Day to day, the team (four founders with NASA/ESA and CubeSat experience) is designing and miniaturizing the navigation payload, building and integrating BORD, planning a rideshare to place it in LEO, and preparing to iterate using in‑orbit data before committing to lunar launches. Publicly, they aim to launch an initial set of four lunar satellites to provide partial south‑pole coverage as a next step, contingent on successful validation and launch logistics Instinct/YC launch page, YC/LinkedIn post.

Who are their target customer(s)

• Commercial lunar lander companies (including CLPS providers and riders): They need real‑time position fixes during orbital insertion and descent to avoid landing failures, but there is no routine lunar GNSS today and current methods depend on ground tracking or large, costly onboard systems YC company page.
• Rover teams (commercial and academic): Rovers require frequent, accurate location data for autonomous driving and mapping, but small missions can’t carry heavy navigation hardware and lack an easy, low‑mass positioning service to plug in YC company page.
• Lunar orbiter and relay operators: They need precise orbit and timing for relays, transfers, and collision avoidance, yet often rely on sparse ground passes or complex cross‑linking that adds cost and operational risk YC company page.
• Spacecraft integrators and avionics suppliers: They want compact, low‑cost nav modules that fit CubeSat budgets and volumes so customers can add precision nav without redesigning vehicles; existing options are often too large, expensive, or power‑hungry for small lunar missions YC company page.
• Mission operations teams (agency or commercial): They need straightforward, timely position data during high‑risk phases to automate decisions and reduce human workload, but today face limited situational awareness and brittle fallbacks if tracking or sensors fail YC company page.

How would they acquire their first 10, 50, and 100 customers

• First 10: Founder‑led outreach to active lunar lander teams (including CLPS contractors), offering a paid, time‑boxed pilot that uses BORD LEO test data plus a drop‑in receiver dev kit to de‑risk integration; structure milestone payments and co‑funded support to minimize commitment YC company page.
• First 50: Add channel partnerships with avionics suppliers and small spacecraft integrators to bundle Instinct’s receiver/service into standard stacks; run a developer program with reference integrations and modest subsidies, converting early pilots into reference missions backed by published flight‑test results YC company page.
• First 100: Partner with rideshare and mission‑services providers, offer simple subscription pricing and a “certified integration” program so teams can buy a proven package; expand to rover and academic users with low‑cost dev kits and grants, supported by public tech reports, conference demos, and a light operations SLA/insurance to build confidence.

What is the rough total addressable market

Top-down context:

Third‑party studies project a large cumulative lunar market over the next decade, but navigation is a subset; near‑term demand is constrained by how many missions actually fly and adopt third‑party PNT services Analysys Mason summary, PwC lunar assessment.

Bottom-up calculation:

Using Instinct’s stated per‑satellite target (<$5M), a 4‑sat demo implies ≈$20M of hardware, while 20–50 satellites imply ≈$100M–$250M if sold as hardware Instinct/YC launch page. On the mission side, assuming ~50 near‑term missions (CLPS and others) at $50k–$250k each yields ~$2.5M–$12.5M, with upside if mission cadence grows; hardware price references suggest low‑five‑figure receivers are plausible baselines NASA CLPS overview, CLPS deliveries, Pumpkin GNSS kit.

Assumptions:

• A meaningful share of CLPS and international/commercial lunar missions choose third‑party lunar PNT rather than bespoke solutions.
• Per‑mission pricing ranges from a simple receiver/license to fuller integration and ops support ($50k–$250k+).
• Instinct either sells satellites (capex revenue) or finances the constellation and sells services (opex revenue); mix affects realized TAM.

Who are some of their notable competitors

• ESA Moonlight (Lunar Communications and Navigation Services): Europe‑led program to provide lunar telecom and navigation, with primes (Telespazio/Thales Alenia Space) contracted to develop the navigation space segment — a large, funded alternative targeting the same customers ESA Moonlight overview, Thales/Telespazio.
• GMV (LUPIN): Spanish aerospace firm developing a GPS‑like lunar positioning system (LUPIN), aligned with European lunar PNT efforts and aiming at the same mission operators Reuters.
• SSTL / Lunar Pathfinder: SSTL’s Lunar Pathfinder is an early commercial relay/navigation precursor and a stepping stone for Moonlight, positioning SSTL as a direct competitor for small‑sat lunar relay and PNT use cases SSTL Lunar Mission Services.
• NASA (LunaNet / LCRNS; LuGRE): NASA is defining lunar comms/nav architecture and standards (LunaNet/LCRNS) and demonstrated lunar GNSS reception via LuGRE, offering government‑backed alternatives/partnership paths for operators NASA LCRNS, LuGRE.
• Qascom (lunar GNSS receivers): GNSS company behind the LuGRE receiver; developing lunar GNSS/L‑CNS user terminals that could partner with or displace bespoke receivers from new PNT providers Qascom, GPS World on LuGRE.