Orbital Operations

What do they actually do

Orbital Operations is an early‑stage space hardware R&D company building two flight subsystems: an actively cooled cryogenic propellant management system (CPMS) designed to store liquid hydrogen and oxygen in space for long durations, and a high‑thrust LH2/LOX chemical engine sized for an orbital maneuvering vehicle. Both are in ground development with lab prototypes and test articles; the team is building a cryogenic demonstrator and an engine test stand, not flying vehicles yet (company roadmap, SpaceNews).

Day to day, they design and build bench hardware, run cryogenic conditioning and planned hot‑fire tests, collect data to mature the subsystems, and sequence qualification before integration. They have no in‑orbit product or paying customers yet; the focus is R&D and customer outreach, with conversations and LOIs shifting toward U.S. national security stakeholders (Space Force/AFRL). The company raised a 2025 seed round and is expanding a small Long Beach facility to support test campaigns and flight‑representative builds (company release, SpaceNews).

Public milestones ahead include full‑scale chamber hot‑fires in late 2025, ground testing of the CPMS 90 K and 20 K stages in 2026, an orbital cryo demonstrator in 2027, engine qualification in 2028, and a first integrated demo mission of the vehicle (Astraeus) in 2029 (company roadmap).

Who are their target customer(s)

• U.S. national security space operators (Space Force, AFRL, related program offices): They need rapid, on‑orbit defensive/repositioning options for high‑value satellites but lack a proven, loitering high‑thrust vehicle and in‑space refueling approach today (SpaceNews).
• Commercial GEO and other high‑value satellite operators: They want to reduce outage and replacement risk; today they rely on slow low‑thrust maneuvers or costly replacements and have few fast rendezvous/defense options (company release).
• On‑orbit servicers and space logistics/OTV providers: They want higher‑performance propulsion and long‑duration cryo storage to enable faster transfers and refueling, but LH2/LOX storage and thermal management in orbit remain unsolved at scale (company roadmap).
• Satellite manufacturers and spacecraft integrators: They need qualified, flight‑proven components before adopting LH2/LOX propulsion or cryogenic storage due to integration and reliability risk (company roadmap).
• Defense research labs and primes evaluating new space capabilities: They require mature suppliers and testbeds to include new propulsion/cryo approaches in programs; today Orbital has ground prototypes and a roadmap toward an orbital cryo demo (SpaceNews).

How would they acquire their first 10, 50, and 100 customers

• First 10: Convert existing defense and commercial conversations into paid, narrowly scoped prototype contracts and MOUs, offering early access to ground‑test data and invited bench tests; leverage Space Force/AFRL engagement and the seed round to secure small cost‑share demos (SpaceNews, company release).
• First 50: Package early demos into standardized pilots and paid qualification tests for primes, manufacturers, and servicers; pursue SBIR/OTA‑style task orders with defense customers and use validated test results as references to recruit regional commercial operators (company roadmap, SpaceNews).
• First 100: Sell flight‑proven units, integration packages, and recurring service agreements after orbital cryo and engine qualification milestones; channel sales through primes/integrators for larger programs and offer licensing and mission‑support retainers (company roadmap).

What is the rough total addressable market

Top-down context:

Published analyses size the on‑orbit servicing market at roughly $2.7–3.3B around 2024–2025, with growth through the 2030s, while space logistics/OTV markets are in the ~$1.5–1.8B range today and expanding; on the government side, the U.S. Space Force forecasts ~$2.3B in commercial satcom services with a nearly $895–905M maneuverable GEO program opportunity (Grand View Research, GMI, Straits Research, GMI OTV, SpaceNews).

Bottom-up calculation:

Illustratively, if 10–15 OOS/logistics providers and 3–5 GEO operators buy high‑thrust/cyro subsystems or rapid‑response services at ~$10–20M and ~$25–75M per year respectively, plus one MGEO‑scale defense IDIQ (~$90–180M/year over a multi‑year ceiling), the near‑to‑mid‑term addressable spend could be on the order of ~$0.5–1.5B/year across these segments (SpaceNews).

Assumptions:

• Ticket sizes reflect subsystem integrations, demos, and mission services rather than full spacecraft procurement.
• Adoption by a subset of operators/providers (not the entire market) over multi‑year IDIQ/task‑order cycles.
• Commercial GEO operators value avoidance of outages at a material fraction of replacement costs (typical GEO satellite programs run ~$100–400M) (TE Connectivity).

Who are some of their notable competitors

• Impulse Space: Building high‑thrust, maneuverable space tugs (Mira/Helios) aimed at rapid repositioning and national‑security use; they’ve won U.S. government work and were selected by NASA for OTV studies (NASA).
• Orbit Fab: Provider of in‑space refueling hardware and propellant delivery (hydrazine/xenon today) with government and commercial contracts; overlaps any refuelable‑vehicle logistics stack Orbital targets.
• Northrop Grumman SpaceLogistics (MEV): Incumbent with flown Mission Extension Vehicle life‑extension missions and established GEO operator relationships—competes for satellite protection/servicing budgets using non‑cryogenic approaches (MEV fact sheet).
• Astroscale: Commercial servicer focused on debris removal, inspection, and maneuvering; active with government and commercial partners and has pre‑bought fuel from Orbit Fab, signaling ecosystem readiness (Aviation Week).
• United Launch Alliance (ACES / long‑duration cryo): Legacy prime developing long‑duration cryogenic upper‑stage/depot concepts (ACES/Centaur extensions) with strong government ties; competes for program dollars tied to cryogenic storage and long‑endurance stages.