Pax

What do they actually do

Pax builds software, with a managed-service layer, that finds, prepares, and helps file U.S. duty drawback (tariff refund) claims. It ingests data from PDFs, ERP exports, and U.S. Customs (ACE), matches records across shipments and transactions, runs refund‑optimization logic, and generates ready‑to‑file claim packages plus a dashboard to track progress and payments (software overview). Pax can file directly for claimants or hand off a completed package to a customer’s broker; broker partners can also use Pax as a backend engine while staying client‑facing (pricing/partners).

Pax charges only when refunds are recovered, using a tiered success‑fee model, and offers referral/revenue‑share programs for brokers, 3PLs, and forwarders—no upfront fees (pricing). The company markets self‑serve flows for simpler cases (upload documents, see eligibility and estimates, and track claims) and a managed approach for complex supply chains (software overview, Rippling profile). Pax also advertises that its optimization can uncover materially more refunds than traditional methods (they cite roughly 15% more) (LinkedIn).

Who are their target customer(s)

• Small/mid-sized importers with straightforward shipments and small claim sizes: Broker minimums and upfront fees don’t pencil out, and teams lack time/know‑how to reconcile invoices and packing lists, so refunds go unclaimed.
• Large importers/enterprises with complex, multi‑leg supply chains: Data sits across ERPs, customs exports, and PDFs; reconciling eligibility is manual and risky under audit, causing missed recoveries or heavy analyst effort.
• Customs brokers offering drawback services: High manual casework, long cycle times, and thin margins on small claims make it hard to scale services profitably.
• Freight forwarders and 3PLs seeking to add value: They want to surface refund opportunities and earn referral revenue without building new tooling or adding compliance staff; tracking claim status for clients is cumbersome.
• Finance, tax, or compliance teams inside importers: Uncertainty about eligibility, documentation, audit defense, and refund timing complicates cash forecasting and increases compliance risk.

How would they acquire their first 10, 50, and 100 customers

• First 10: Leverage warm leads (YC/investor intros, inbound demos) and convert with concierge onboarding: ingest documents, run eligibility, prepare/file claims, and charge only the success fee to reduce friction (pricing, software, YC).
• First 50: Pilot with brokers and 3PLs on revenue‑share or white‑label backend to surface claims to their existing clients; run joint outreach. In parallel, target mid‑market importers with short pilots that use automated ingestion to show faster ROI (pricing, software).
• First 100: Scale self‑serve eligibility (SEO/paid around drawback queries) and automate ingestion to reduce manual work; formalize a partner program and use case studies/ROI proof to close finance/tax buyers at larger importers (software, pricing, announcement).

What is the rough total addressable market

Top-down context:

U.S. CBP’s drawback program refunds about $1B annually, and eligibility expanded under TFTEA; 2018 refunds peaked around $1.38B, indicating a roughly $1–1.4B yearly refund pool (GAO, GAO highlights, Comstock & Holt).

Bottom-up calculation:

Assuming ~$1.0–1.4B in annual U.S. drawback refunds and an average 15% success fee, Pax’s direct revenue TAM is roughly $150–210M/year in the U.S. (GAO).

Assumptions:

• Focus is U.S. CBP drawback only; excludes other countries’ programs.
• Average realized success fee ~15% of recovered refunds (tiered, success‑based).
• All refundable volume is monetizable via third‑party providers rather than entirely in‑house.

Who are some of their notable competitors

• Flexport: Freight forwarder bundling duty‑drawback prep and filing into its logistics stack, positioned to surface and accelerate refunds for existing shipping customers (Flexport, FreightWaves).
• Descartes / CustomsInfo: Established customs software with an ABI‑compliant drawback module used by brokers and enterprises—software‑first, typically licensed rather than success‑fee (Descartes, CustomsInfo).
• e2open: Global trade management suite with duty management and refund workflows; competes for enterprises that want drawback inside a broader GTM platform (e2open).
• SAP Global Trade Services (GTS): Large‑enterprise trade/compliance platform that supports customs procedures including drawback; favored by SAP‑centric corporates to keep compliance in‑house (SAP GTS).
• Charter Brokerage: Specialized drawback broker offering end‑to‑end managed services and proprietary tooling (e.g., Hamilton platform); competes on recoveries and audit support (services, Hamilton).