Strike

What do they actually do

Strike is building a regulated exchange for binary event contracts aimed at business use cases. Publicly, the company says it operates a regulated binary event‑contract exchange pending final CFTC designation approval and remains in stealth with minimal product detail or visible markets on its site [tradestrike.app][Y Combinator].

On such exchanges, users trade yes/no contracts on clearly defined outcomes (for example, “Will metric X exceed Y by date Z?”). Winning outcomes pay a fixed amount while losing outcomes expire worthless. Strike emphasizes operating within the U.S. regulatory framework for event contracts rather than as an unregulated betting site, which is notable given the CFTC’s oversight and past actions in this area [tradestrike.app][CFTC Polymarket order].

Who are their target customer(s)

• Finance / FP&A teams at mid‑to‑large companies: Forecasts are slow, politically influenced, and hard to aggregate. They need clearer, market‑based signals to price and hedge business outcomes [Y Combinator].
• Product and operations managers running launches or KPI targets: They lack a quick, unbiased way to aggregate belief on whether initiatives will hit targets. A tradable yes/no market can provide faster, incentive‑aligned feedback than surveys or committees [Y Combinator].
• Treasury and risk teams needing to hedge operational or revenue risks: Few standardized instruments exist to transfer event‑level risk, and they require a regulated counterparty to satisfy compliance. A regulated exchange matters for participation [tradestrike.app].
• Sales and revenue‑operations leaders managing bookings forecasts: Forecasts are often padded or optimistic, which distorts quota setting and compensation. A market price is harder to game and can calibrate targets and payouts [Y Combinator].
• Corporate strategy, M&A, and business‑development teams: They need simple, tradable ways to price specific event risks (including competitor or market moves) and prefer regulated venues over informal or unregulated channels [Y Combinator][tradestrike.app].

How would they acquire their first 10, 50, and 100 customers

• First 10: Run closed pilots with legal/compliance guardrails via founders’ networks (YC alumni, prior employers) to stand up one measurable KPI market per customer with light pricing concessions and NDAs while CFTC designation is pending.
• First 50: Convert pilots into 3–4 repeatable templates (bookings, launch hit‑rate, revenue miss) and use case‑study results in focused outbound to look‑alike firms, supported by an inside‑sales motion and monthly educational webinars.
• First 100: Add channel partners (treasury/rev‑ops consultancies and adjacent SaaS) and a small enterprise sales team using standardized compliance kits, KYC/AML onboarding, and a repeatable pilot→paid conversion playbook.

What is the rough total addressable market

Top-down context:

Strike targets the intersection of enterprise forecasting/hedging demand and regulated U.S. event‑contract venues. CFTC‑designated exchanges like Kalshi and long‑running platforms like Nadex demonstrate that regulated event‑contract markets exist as a defined category [CFTC press release on Kalshi designation][Nadex about / regulation].

Bottom-up calculation:

If 3,000 mid‑market and enterprise firms adopt business‑focused event markets at an average $50k annual contract, the TAM would be ~$150M; at 10,000 firms the TAM would be ~$500M. Early wedge could be 300 firms for ~$15M, expanding with additional use cases and geographies.

Assumptions:

• Targetable firms are mid‑market/enterprise companies with frequent forecasting/hedging needs (3,000–10,000 potential buyers).
• Average annual contract value (platform + markets + compliance support) of ~$50k.
• Initial adoption at ~1–3% of targetable firms, growing with regulatory clarity and proven ROI.

Who are some of their notable competitors

• Kalshi: A U.S. CFTC‑designated exchange listing event contracts for real‑money trading; a direct competitor operating under the same regulatory framework Strike is pursuing [CFTC press release on Kalshi designation].
• Nadex: A long‑running U.S. exchange for binary/event contracts and short‑term derivatives serving retail and professionals; CFTC‑regulated with event‑style products [Nadex: Event contracts / products][Nadex about / regulation].
• Polymarket: A major prediction‑market platform that faced a 2022 CFTC action for offering unregistered event contracts and has since moved toward intermediated U.S. access under regulatory oversight [CFTC order vs. Polymarket (2022)][Polymarket statement / press].
• PredictIt: An academic/political event market operating with special regulatory accommodation and focused on political outcomes; relevant for customers seeking election or policy signals [Coverage of PredictIt legal outcome and future markets (2025)].
• Good Judgment (and Good Judgment Open): A crowd‑forecasting service and network of professional forecasters selling enterprise forecasting and private tournaments—an alternative to markets for calibrated probabilities [Good Judgment: services].