Theseus

What do they actually do

Theseus sells a small retrofit navigation module (Compass / Micro VPS) that lets a drone navigate when GPS is unavailable. It uses an onboard camera and IMU to match what it sees against pre‑loaded satellite imagery, then outputs a GPS‑like position over serial (NMEA) so the flight controller can keep flying autonomous missions as if GPS were present YC profile. The module is self‑contained, presents itself like a GPS, and Theseus says typical integrations take under 30 minutes YC profile.

Today it’s being used by early defense customers and special operations teams, with field testing reported and initial OEM integrations and LOIs signed. Theseus emphasizes it does not build drones; it provides the navigation component that can be added to many airframes TechCrunch YC profile.

The system depends on having usable ground features and reference imagery for the flight area; performance degrades over featureless surfaces (e.g., open water, uniform snow) until visual features return, and imagery must be prepared ahead of time. Public third‑party benchmarks of the company’s “GPS‑level precision” claim are not yet available on their site YC profile.

Who are their target customer(s)

• Special operations / frontline drone teams: GPS is frequently jammed or spoofed; teams lose autonomous navigation and must hand‑fly or abort missions. They need a lightweight, non‑emitting backup that restores waypoint flight in messy field conditions TechCrunch YC profile.
• Drone manufacturers (OEMs): Customers want GPS redundancy, but many alternatives are heavy, expensive, or hard to integrate. OEMs need a low‑cost, plug‑in option that works across multiple airframes without redesign YC profile.
• Commercial operators in GPS‑hard environments (mining, utilities, maritime, canyons): Frequent GPS dropouts cause mission aborts, gaps in data capture, and safety risks near infrastructure. They need positioning that doesn’t rely on live satellite signals and fits pre‑mission map workflows Grand View.
• Search‑and‑rescue / emergency response teams: Flying under canopy, in urban canyons, or through smoke/fog often breaks GPS and comms, forcing slow manual patterns. They need a quickly deployable navigation aid to restore autonomous patterns with minimal setup Exyn.
• Defense procurement / program offices: They must prove operational benefit, meet security/supply‑chain requirements, and scale from trials to production under tight acquisition rules. They look for reliable performance data and simple paths to buy GAO.

How would they acquire their first 10, 50, and 100 customers

• First 10: Convert current trial users (special operations and other early units) into paying customers with short, priced pilot packages, on‑site support, and simple acceptance criteria; in parallel, turn signed OEM LOIs into paid pilot integrations YC profile TechCrunch.
• First 50: Leverage case studies to run regional demo days at bases, bid for small prototyping contracts, and secure initial OEM production test orders; add training/support bundles and a reseller program for public‑safety and industrial pilots.
• First 100: Standardize a production integration kit for OEMs, stand up field support and channel programs, and win placement on government contract vehicles; publish anonymized performance logs and pursue third‑party evaluations to reduce procurement friction.

What is the rough total addressable market

Top-down context:

Global drone spending is large and growing: estimates range from ≈$26B–$73B today depending on definition, with military UAV spend itself in the many billions annually and tactical/small‑UAS segments in the single‑ to low‑double‑digit billions Grand View MarketsandMarkets Mordor Intelligence.

Bottom-up calculation:

Unit shipments for small UAVs are modeled in the hundreds of thousands per year mid‑decade (≈600k–1M). As an illustration: at 600k units/year with a 10% attach‑rate, that’s 60k modules; at an assumed $2k–$5k ASP, revenue would be ≈$120M–$300M/year MarketsandMarkets.

Assumptions:

• Module average selling price (e.g., $2k–$5k) varies by defense vs. commercial channel.
• Attach‑rate depends on OEM adoption, mission profiles, and procurement approvals (defense likely higher near‑term).
• Reachable share of shipments constrained by imagery workflows, airframe fit, and regulatory/compliance requirements.

Who are some of their notable competitors

• UAV Navigation–Grupo Oesía (VNS01): Visual Navigation System for GNSS‑denied flight using onboard camera with visual odometry/pattern recognition; targets small/tactical UAS and integrates with their VECTOR autopilots VNS01.
• Emesent (Hovermap): LiDAR‑based SLAM payload that enables GPS‑denied flight, mapping, and autonomy for drones in challenging environments (underground/indoor) Hovermap KB.
• Exyn Technologies: Autonomy and mapping stack for GPS‑denied environments (LiDAR‑SLAM based), sold as drones and payloads for mining, ISR, and SAR Exyn.
• ModalAI (VOXL 2 / VIO): Companion computer/autopilot platforms with visual‑inertial odometry and SDKs for GPS‑denied navigation; used by OEMs/integrators to build GPS‑denied capabilities VOXL 2.
• Spleenlab: Software‑first visual inertial navigation for GPS‑denied operations running on Jetson/VOXL; outputs position over MAVLink/ROS2 for PX4/ArduPilot Spleenlab.