Ultra

What do they actually do

Ultra is a free, live AI-powered advisor for ambitious high-school students. It runs a “chance me”–style admissions simulation that estimates how elite admissions officers might score a student’s profile, then breaks down strengths/weaknesses and suggests concrete next steps. Students can search a curated database of opportunities (the site advertises 3,000+ extracurriculars and 1,000+ accepted applicant profiles) and get matched to past admit profiles and recommended strategies tied to career interests (Ultra homepage, How it works / Chance Me).

Ultra layers in human support with on-demand “personal strategy calls,” mentor introductions, and internship matching. The company says “thousands of students” already use Ultra and points to early placements for top students at startups and VC firms through its network and cohort programs (Ultra homepage, YC launch, Fondo summary).

Who are their target customer(s)

• Ambitious high-school students applying to selective colleges: They don’t know their real admit odds or which specific activities will improve their profile, and can’t afford private consultants to get a prioritized plan.
• First-generation or low-income high-school students: They lack personalized guidance, mentor networks, and vetted pathways to research/internships that make applications competitive.
• Students seeking real experience (VC/startup internships, research, competitions): They struggle to find quality, vetted opportunities and relevant introductions that match their interests and background.
• High-school counselors and schools with limited advising bandwidth: They must support many students but can’t provide individualized plans or broker internships and mentors at scale.
• Startups, VCs, and employers wanting to recruit early talent: They lack an easy channel to post opportunities, screen motivated high-school candidates, and build a reliable early pipeline.

How would they acquire their first 10, 50, and 100 customers

• First 10: Founder-led pilots with 8–12 students from the founders’ and YC networks, bundling a live simulation, an on‑demand strategy call, and help applying to one internship; use early placements and the YC launch as social proof (YC launch, Fondo summary).
• First 50: Run 3–5 free school pilots (10–20 seats each) via counselor outreach and a live webinar; collect testimonials and anonymized case studies to seed school newsletters and student communities. Invite early employer partners to post exclusive roles as a hook (Ultra homepage).
• First 100: Launch a selective 20–30 person fellowship and recruit 15–20 student ambassadors to run local info sessions; in parallel, secure 5–10 startups/VCs to pay for priority postings and co-host virtual office hours that drive recurring student signups.

What is the rough total addressable market

Top-down context:

There are roughly 16.9M U.S. high-school students (grades 9–12), about 27k U.S. secondary/high schools, and an independent college‑consulting market often cited around $3B (NCES enrollment, NCES school counts, Marketplace on independent consultants).

Bottom-up calculation:

Assuming 10–15% of U.S. high‑schoolers are actively pursuing selective admissions or equivalent profile‑building, Ultra’s core student TAM is ~1.6–2.5M (16.9M × 10–15%), with the immediate focus likely near the lower bound concentrated in juniors/seniors (NCES enrollment). Common App-scale applicant volumes corroborate a large active pool each year (industry reporting).

Assumptions:

• 10–15% of U.S. high‑schoolers fit the “ambitious/selective‑applicant” profile in a given year.
• Adoption is feasible via free student access and school/counselor channels without heavy per‑student marketing spend.
• Employer-side B2B revenue (postings/pipelines) is additive to the student/school TAM rather than primary.

Who are some of their notable competitors

• CollegeVine: Consumer platform with a free chancing engine, school-matching tools, and low-cost peer/paid expert services like essay review—overlaps with Ultra on automated admissions chancing and near‑peer advising (chancing, essay services).
• Crimson Education: High-end global admissions consultancy selling intensive 1:1 strategy, essay, research and internship placement; competes via human networks and bespoke support for families willing to pay (Crimson site, overview).
• AdmitSee: Paid library of real admitted students’ files and essays; overlaps with Ultra’s “past‑admit profile” use case but is primarily a content/data product, not human‑in‑the‑loop advising (essays & profiles, search).
• CollegeAdvisor (U.S. News): Paid advising network featuring former admissions officers, structured packages, and school-support programs—competes on high‑quality human advising and counselor partnerships (about, pricing).
• ScholarMatch: Nonprofit offering free/low-cost long-term advising, scholarships, and career support for first‑generation/low‑income students; competes for the same students and school partnerships but operates via grants/donations (programs, Scholars Program).